*********************************************************************** Product: Daily Forecast of Geomagnetic Activity Issued: 2020 January 18 06:20UTC Prepared by the Athens Space Weather Forecasting Center *********************************************************************** 1. Solar activity Solar activity was decreasing stable during the past 24 hours. Solar Flux (10.7 cm) measured on 17.01.2020 at 20:00 UTC was 70 sfu. The background X-Ray flux is at the class < A1 level. The geomagnetic field was at very quiet levels on January 17. No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery. A faint CME observed on 14/01/2020 10:00UT and the estimated time of arrival from EAMv2 model is 18/01/2020 15:29UT. The confidence that this CME will actually arrive on Earth is about 20%. The Kp index now is at almost quiet levels with Kp=2. 2. Solar Wind Geomagnetic Activity Solar Wind speed from ACE: 325 km/s. Solar Wind speed from STEREO A: --- km/s. Solar Wind speed from STEREO B: --- km/s. The southward component Bz is: 2 nT north. 3. Solar Energetic Particle Events Protons and electrons are quiet. 4. Coronal Holes A small coronal hole was in Earth facing position on January 16-17. This area was very small and probably is not geoeffective. 5. Geophysical Activity Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active intervals in the case that the expected CME reach Earth and at very quiet levels on January 19-20. Date Estimated Ap index Expected geom. storm 2020.01.18 07 - 2020.01.19 04 - 2020.01.20 04 - *************************************************************************** Athens Space Weather Forecasting Center Physics Department, National & Kapodistrian University of Athens Athens Neutron Monitor Station A.NE.MO.S Tel.: +30 210 727 6901 email: spaceweather@phys.uoa.gr URL: http://spaceweather.phys.uoa.gr ***************************************************************************