*********************************************************************** Product: Daily Forecast of Geomagnetic Activity Issued: 2018 February 16 07:48UTC Prepared by the Athens Space Weather Forecasting Center *********************************************************************** 1. Solar activity Solar activity was increasing during the past 24 hours. Solar Flux (10.7 cm) measured on 15.02.2018 at 20:00 UTC was 73 sfu. The background X-Ray flux is at the class A5 level. The geomagnetic field was at very quiet to active levels on February 15. No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery. The Kp index now is at almost quiet levels with Kp=2. The CME of February 12 finally arrived on February 15 at 07:38UT and it was succesfully predicted by our model EAMv2. The arrival time from our model was Feb. 15 at 06:24UT. 2. Solar Wind Geomagnetic Activity Solar Wind speed from ACE: 370 km/s. Solar Wind speed from STEREO A: 360 km/s. Solar Wind speed from STEREO B: --- km/s. The southward component Bz is: 12 nT north. 3. Solar Energetic Particle Events Protons and electrons are quiet. 4. Coronal Holes The coronal hole CH851 will be in Earth facing position on February 12-16. 5. Geophysical Activity Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels, with a chance for minor storm intervals, on February 16-18 due to the arrival of a high speed stream of solar wind from CH851. Date Estimated Ap index Expected geom. storm 2018.02.16 11 - 2018.02.17 12 - 2018.02.18 12 - *************************************************************************** Athens Space Weather Forecasting Center Physics Department, National & Kapodistrian University of Athens Athens Neutron Monitor Station A.NE.MO.S Tel.: +30 210 727 6901 email: spaceweather@phys.uoa.gr URL: http://spaceweather.phys.uoa.gr ***************************************************************************